
When I left for Colombia, Hillary Clinton was all but declared the Democratic nominee for president. Seven weeks later, the national media has all but declared Sen. Obama the nominee and favorite to be the next resident of 1600 Pennsylvania Avenue. Some talking heads are suggesting Hillary should give up, others that she has shown signs of concession. More surprising is the enthusiasm in the 20 and 30 something sets, people who have never voted in a general election proudly declaring their support, and their first cast ballot, for Barack Obama.
The hype borders on the hysterical. People here speak of Obama as they might a personal savior. A friend witnessed a fight break out between an Obama supporter and a Clinton man at the dog park. The intensity of the connection some people claim to the man, the eruption of screams worthy of the Beatles makes one wonder what they are handing out at those rallies. And the slogan, Yes We Can—without irony? Far be it from me not to empathize with the upper middle class college kid who desperately wants to identify with a people’s movement—chanting ‘si se puede’ at a farm workers rally, ok—but invoking the ghost of Cesar Chavez for a man who out fundraised a Democrat named Clinton?
I just don't get the hype, and I don't particularly care to believe in a better tomorrow without first checking the itinerary. Sure it will be swell to see Mr. Bush go back to scrub farming, mismanaging baseball teams, bankrupting oil companies, or whatever it is he chooses to do back in Texas, but after the party on January 20, it’s back to the deficit, Iraq, the economy. There is going to be one hell of a collective hangover.
Obama is clearly the more exciting of the two candidates. Perhaps it’s an asset that his Washington resume is so short, that he can still boast incorruptibility and campaign as the agent of institutional change. He is a candidate with the charisma of a young Bill Clinton, and my generation has not been this hyped up for a candidate in my lifetime.
Yet come time for the general election, Obama seems like he is more on the path of a former Senator from South Dakota than that of the Arkansas Governor. In 1992, Bill Clinton encouraged the party to break from the failing formula of cobbling together left wing coalitions in favor of a centrist agenda and the successful and pragmatic tactics of triangulation. With a faltering economy and an opponent forced to renege on his most famous campaign promise, Clinton won, though with less than a majority of the vote.
George McGovern inspired a generation of young Democrats in the summer of 1972 the way Obama has energized a new generation of voters today. McGovern, like Obama, was the anti-war candidate, the man who would get us out of Vietnam in exchange for all our prisoners of war. But based on his platform and voting record in the Senate, he was tarred, post-convention, as the AAA candidate, "Amnesty, Abortion, and Acid," a reference to his support of forgiving the draft dodgers, his stance for pro-choice, and his call to legalize marijuana. He lost the electoral college 520-17.
It is hard to imagine that the Obama campaign could possibly stumble as badly as McGovern's. McGovern dropped his vice-presidential nominee Thomas Eagleton when it was revealed that he had undergone shock therapy for depression in the 60's, but only after going on record three days before saying that he backed Eagelton 1000 percent despite the revelation. Some members of the Democratic establishment, fuming that the McGovern insurgency had completed what they considered to be a coup at the convention, formed a Democrats for Nixon coalition.
Though the Obama candidacy started as a grassroots phenomenon, he is now embraced as the new face of the Democratic party, and he is gaining the support of all but the die hard Clintonistas. Hillary will be under enormous pressure to fold her tent if trailing in the delegate count after Pennsylvania, a highly probable outcome. Here Obama has McGovern to thank as he was a leader in reshaping what had been backroom coronations into a genuine democratic process after the debacle of Chicago 68. And there won’t be a 'Democrats for McCain' this time around, the party will happily coalesce around the charismatic candidate in their quest to wake up from the eight year nightmare of Cowboy in Chief starring the retarded son of George Herbert Walker. (Ed note: An American aristocrat who can parley his village idiot routine into a two-term presidency could not actually be retarded. He would be either a genius, the evil variety, or at least have the sense to hire one hell of a team of handlers.) If a patrician and out of touch John Kerry can come within a whisker of the White House, and the alternately wooden and pompous Al Gore can win a popular vote, then Obama should prove a formidable candidate come November.
The Republicans will soon start taking their shots in earnest, and already the Obamas have provided a couple of targets. Are the American people really going to choose a Democrat who by some accounts has the most liberal voting record in the Senate? The Scarlet L is a slander on par with accusations of pedophilia in the South, and the Republican machine is guaranteed to remind the voters of Obama’s leftist credentials. Michelle Obama did her husband no favors last week when she stated that she had never been proud of her country in her adult lifetime, that is, before the American people rallied behind her husband. An unpatriotic first lady will not go over well in the fly over states. Republican spin masters couldn’t have manufactured a better quote for her.
Obama is a smooth debater and a powerful orator, yet it remains to be seen if he can win the center from a man with solid bipartisan credentials. Already the Obama campaign has made what could prove a costly blunder on the electoral map. Obama strode into a minefield in Thursday’s debate when he told the nation he would sit down with Raul Castro without setting prior conditions on the communist regime in Cuba. Perhaps it would have been a good idea to consider the views of the Cubans in South Florida before making such a brash statement. Not a good idea to enrage a large voting bloc in the largest swing state.
I am a part of a rare demographic these days, a free trade social liberal. Trade is the issue that prevents me from becoming excited about the campaign for change. Obama trots out the same tired protectionist rhetoric that generally precludes the possibility of an intelligent approach to grappling with the realities of globalization.
Obama calls for a reorientation of foreign policy with greater emphasis on our own hemisphere, yet his protectionist posturing on trade policy would make progress difficult. Colombia, in just one example, a staunchly pro-American country on a continent with a strident anti-American bloc, is eager to see the ratification of an already negotiated trade accord with United States. Obama’s proposed moratorium on such deals would prove a slap in the face to a loyal ally. And just how would his administration deliver on its promise to strengthen ties with Mexico and work to improve its economy while at the same time preparing to roll back NAFTA? Protectionism can make for bad economics and bad foreign policy.
Don’t get me wrong, balanced against the calamity of the Bush-led Iraq War and the fiscal recklessness of the Republican Party, I think it’s time for a change of leadership, and if that means passing the reins to the Junior Senator from Illinois, then I’m for Obama. I just can’t yet drink the ecstasy laced Kool Aid.
I wasn't alive the last time there was this much excitement about an anti-war democratic candidate, but from everything I read, "McGovern in 72" was a wild ride. The Obama staffers are energized in a way that would be impossible in a more establishment oriented headquarters like that of the Clintons. A hardboiled Democratic organizer who signed on to the Obama camp told me that she has been amazed with the energy and positive spirit pervading the campaign. At times in New Hampshire she would go door to door with the rank and file volunteers, because that’s what she felt was most needed at the time.
“The spirit of everyone is amazing. It’s a ‘What can I do for you?’ campaign. We started out thinking he was running for Vice-President, now it is likely, it is actually likely, that he will be the next President of the United States. But one thing is for sure, never count out a Clinton.”
Our next door neighbors have been unusually quiet this past week. None of the Tuesday, Wednesday, Thursday night parties, with people coming and going until 3am. I am enjoying the quiet at night.
Then I caught a revealing snippet of conversation through an open window yesterday afternoon.
“What happened to Felix?” a girl asked the crew on the front stoop.
“He’s off in Ohio, working for the Obama campaign,” one of the guys explained.
“He’s dealing to the Obama campaign?”
“No, he’s working for the campaign, getting out the vote.”
“Shit. Where are we going to get our pills from?”
Felix, the drug dealing Obama campaigner. I knew they were handing out something at those rallies. Click Here to Read More..
